Pharmaceuticals Import and Export Analysis for the First Half Year of 2010
news 9/21/2010
During the first half year of 2010, the import and export values of medicines and health products in China are of 28.302 billion dollars, the increased rate is 28.8% compared with the same term in last year, among them, export values are of 18.887 billion dollars with increased rate of 31.16%, import values are of 9.416 billion dollars with increased rate of 24.31%. From the statistical data, both import and export grow at high speed under the circumstance of international medical market recovering and domestic market sharply expanding in 2010. Furthermore, exports have already got rid of the effect of financial crises in 2009. Compared with the strong growth in 2008, the increased rate also reaches to 27.74%.
Although, there are many uncertain factors in the current international market, China is still competitiveness for pharmaceutical export. The pharmaceutical foreign trade is expected a "prudent optimism” in the second half of 2010 along with further structure adjustment on pharmaceuticals export and a stable domestic environment and emerging markets being recovered quickly.
The demand from international market is huge, the purchased volume of global pharmaceuticals in the first half of the year reaches to the highest volume of the same time period in history.
Chinese GTI data shows that, from January to May in 2010, the volume of trade in import market for global main pharmaceuticals is of increased rate of 16.34%. Among which, the increased rate in developed countries, covering EU, America and Japan, reaches to 13.32%, the increased rate in developing countries, covering China, Russia and Brazil, reaches to 32.3%. The increased rate in China and Brazil exceeds 20%, whereas, the increased rate in Brazil reaches to 60.89%. However, the share for new markets in global markets is limited, which is the 20% share of markets for developed countries. Based on the trend of global pharmaceuticals trade from January to May in 2010, it is estimated that the increased rate of global pharmaceuticals trade in the first half of year can reach to 15%, and the markets of main developing countries can be continuously expanded and become the new growth driver for global pharmaceuticals markets.
The API market is changed from recovery to steady growth, the volume of exports exceeds the level of the same time period in history.
In the first half of the year, the export value of APIs is 10.54 billion dollar with increased rate of 31.38%, which is 53.23% of exported pharmaceuticals. From the export market, Asian market covering India, ASEAN, Japan and South Korea, remains the fast increase, the export value of these markets reaches 4.448 billion dollars with increased rate is 35.38%. Among which, the increased rate in India and Japan reaches to 37.77% and 39.70% respectively, China is a main source of APIs and intermediates for India. The reduced imports volume in 2009 results in the strengthen restore in the first half of 2010, the imported volume for penicillin, cephalosporin, anti-infection APIs from China has different level of increase, especially the increased rate of cephalosporin is more than 90%.
Because it is the phase of restore in Europe and American in the first half of 2010, and the rigid demands of pharmaceutical market, the increased rates of imported APIs from China reach to 26.57% and 29.3% respectively. Chinese GTI data shows that, from January to May of this year, the volume of imported APIs from China to EU and North America has been closed to or exceeded those in the same period in 2008. Based on the total volume demands, the durative increase of exported APIs from China relies on the effective expansion of international market.
The volume of exported pharmaceuticals is increased, but the price of most APIs is still in low-level, the capacities for some APIs are expanded in China and the original balance of market is damaged, so it is possible to cause the more intense market competition. Because Shandong Luwei Pharmaceutical Company occupies the market of vitamin C through lower price, and the price of vitamin C descends straight down from 10$ per kg to 7.8$ per kg from April 2010. Due to the antidumping action made to the penicillin GK manufactured in China by India, the supply of amoxicillin and ampilillin exceeds the demands, so the export price is below over 10% of last year. The price trend of vitamin B12 has also been impacted with many uncertain factors, the main manufacturers, including North China Pharmaceutical Group, Hebei Yuxing Bio-engineering Co., Ltd. and Ningxia Duowei Pharmaceutical Company, are expected to increase the production capacity recently through cost reduction and technology improvement, and this will aggravate the oversupply. From May 2010 to June 2010, the average export price of vitamin B12 in US market was reduced to 100$ per kg, so it is estimated that the price of vitamin B12 will be dropped in the second half of 2010.
The domestic market expansion for pharmaceuticals will continuously support the steady growth of imports.
At present, the new medical reform in domestic is being pushed steadily, the system of medical service covering the city and countryside is being perfected continuously, so the domestic market for pharmaceutical is expected to be expanded and the demands of foreign pharmaceutical will remain increased. From the type of import pharmaceuticals, the main export products are medical facilities, finished dosages and high level APIs, the growth rate reaches to 27.99%, 12.54% and 27.13% respectively compared with the same term in last year. From the source of imports, the sources of country are America, German, Japan, Swiss and France, the growth rates are all more than 20%. Among which, the percentage of medical facilities from America, German and Japan reaches to 66.25%, the primary imported instruments are X-rays instrument, medical and surgical instrument, chromoscope ultrasonic diagnostic instrument and NMR imaging device. The imported APIs and finished dosages are mainly sourced from America, German, Swiss, France, Belgium and Italy, about 60% are imported by overseas-funded multinational companies,, about 40% are imported by those domestic companies. However, the increased speed of imports by domestic companies is obviously higher than those of overseas-funded companies. In the first half of 2010, the increase rate of imports by domestic companies is 36.6%, which is higher 22.0% than overseas-funded enterprise.
In the second half of 2010, the exports downside risk of pharmaceuticals will be increased, the annual increase will be reduced to 20% from the level of midyear.
At present, the API exports of our country in the second half of 2010 mainly relies on the variation on demands from international market and the export price. From the demands of international market, ,the import volume of main market in the first half of 2010, including Europe and America, India and Japan was closed to or exceeded the historical highest volume, the increased demands from new markets, including Brazil and Russia, can not generate the obvious positive effects on the global market in the short term. At the same time, based on the leading economic indicators of Europe and America, American economy went back to tied and weak again after the second restore was ended, the leading, synchronous and delaying indexes indicate an economic slowdown. In the first half of 2010, the increased rate of export volume to Europe, America and India from China approximates to 30%, so the increased demands will be stable. Furthermore, the API price is difficult to be rebounded at present due to the production capacities expansion for some exported APIs, such as penicillin GK, paracetamol, 7-ACA and vitamin C, and this will result in the export enterprise of API reducing the API price to maintain the share of the market.\
Meanwhile, the increase of global pharmaceuticals trade is expected. The increased rate of 31.16% for exported pharmaceuticals in the first half of 2010 exceeds the market expectation, it shows that the pharmaceuticals with good quality and low price manufactured in China still have strong market competitiveness and is of irreplaceable position. Therefore, it is estimated that the increased rate of exported pharmaceuticals in the second half of 2010 will be reduced. However, we still keep a cautiously optimistic attitude and anticipate that the increased rate of exported pharmaceuticals in 2010 can reach to 20%.
Although, there are many uncertain factors in the current international market, China is still competitiveness for pharmaceutical export. The pharmaceutical foreign trade is expected a "prudent optimism” in the second half of 2010 along with further structure adjustment on pharmaceuticals export and a stable domestic environment and emerging markets being recovered quickly.
The demand from international market is huge, the purchased volume of global pharmaceuticals in the first half of the year reaches to the highest volume of the same time period in history.
Chinese GTI data shows that, from January to May in 2010, the volume of trade in import market for global main pharmaceuticals is of increased rate of 16.34%. Among which, the increased rate in developed countries, covering EU, America and Japan, reaches to 13.32%, the increased rate in developing countries, covering China, Russia and Brazil, reaches to 32.3%. The increased rate in China and Brazil exceeds 20%, whereas, the increased rate in Brazil reaches to 60.89%. However, the share for new markets in global markets is limited, which is the 20% share of markets for developed countries. Based on the trend of global pharmaceuticals trade from January to May in 2010, it is estimated that the increased rate of global pharmaceuticals trade in the first half of year can reach to 15%, and the markets of main developing countries can be continuously expanded and become the new growth driver for global pharmaceuticals markets.
The API market is changed from recovery to steady growth, the volume of exports exceeds the level of the same time period in history.
In the first half of the year, the export value of APIs is 10.54 billion dollar with increased rate of 31.38%, which is 53.23% of exported pharmaceuticals. From the export market, Asian market covering India, ASEAN, Japan and South Korea, remains the fast increase, the export value of these markets reaches 4.448 billion dollars with increased rate is 35.38%. Among which, the increased rate in India and Japan reaches to 37.77% and 39.70% respectively, China is a main source of APIs and intermediates for India. The reduced imports volume in 2009 results in the strengthen restore in the first half of 2010, the imported volume for penicillin, cephalosporin, anti-infection APIs from China has different level of increase, especially the increased rate of cephalosporin is more than 90%.
Because it is the phase of restore in Europe and American in the first half of 2010, and the rigid demands of pharmaceutical market, the increased rates of imported APIs from China reach to 26.57% and 29.3% respectively. Chinese GTI data shows that, from January to May of this year, the volume of imported APIs from China to EU and North America has been closed to or exceeded those in the same period in 2008. Based on the total volume demands, the durative increase of exported APIs from China relies on the effective expansion of international market.
The volume of exported pharmaceuticals is increased, but the price of most APIs is still in low-level, the capacities for some APIs are expanded in China and the original balance of market is damaged, so it is possible to cause the more intense market competition. Because Shandong Luwei Pharmaceutical Company occupies the market of vitamin C through lower price, and the price of vitamin C descends straight down from 10$ per kg to 7.8$ per kg from April 2010. Due to the antidumping action made to the penicillin GK manufactured in China by India, the supply of amoxicillin and ampilillin exceeds the demands, so the export price is below over 10% of last year. The price trend of vitamin B12 has also been impacted with many uncertain factors, the main manufacturers, including North China Pharmaceutical Group, Hebei Yuxing Bio-engineering Co., Ltd. and Ningxia Duowei Pharmaceutical Company, are expected to increase the production capacity recently through cost reduction and technology improvement, and this will aggravate the oversupply. From May 2010 to June 2010, the average export price of vitamin B12 in US market was reduced to 100$ per kg, so it is estimated that the price of vitamin B12 will be dropped in the second half of 2010.
The domestic market expansion for pharmaceuticals will continuously support the steady growth of imports.
At present, the new medical reform in domestic is being pushed steadily, the system of medical service covering the city and countryside is being perfected continuously, so the domestic market for pharmaceutical is expected to be expanded and the demands of foreign pharmaceutical will remain increased. From the type of import pharmaceuticals, the main export products are medical facilities, finished dosages and high level APIs, the growth rate reaches to 27.99%, 12.54% and 27.13% respectively compared with the same term in last year. From the source of imports, the sources of country are America, German, Japan, Swiss and France, the growth rates are all more than 20%. Among which, the percentage of medical facilities from America, German and Japan reaches to 66.25%, the primary imported instruments are X-rays instrument, medical and surgical instrument, chromoscope ultrasonic diagnostic instrument and NMR imaging device. The imported APIs and finished dosages are mainly sourced from America, German, Swiss, France, Belgium and Italy, about 60% are imported by overseas-funded multinational companies,, about 40% are imported by those domestic companies. However, the increased speed of imports by domestic companies is obviously higher than those of overseas-funded companies. In the first half of 2010, the increase rate of imports by domestic companies is 36.6%, which is higher 22.0% than overseas-funded enterprise.
In the second half of 2010, the exports downside risk of pharmaceuticals will be increased, the annual increase will be reduced to 20% from the level of midyear.
At present, the API exports of our country in the second half of 2010 mainly relies on the variation on demands from international market and the export price. From the demands of international market, ,the import volume of main market in the first half of 2010, including Europe and America, India and Japan was closed to or exceeded the historical highest volume, the increased demands from new markets, including Brazil and Russia, can not generate the obvious positive effects on the global market in the short term. At the same time, based on the leading economic indicators of Europe and America, American economy went back to tied and weak again after the second restore was ended, the leading, synchronous and delaying indexes indicate an economic slowdown. In the first half of 2010, the increased rate of export volume to Europe, America and India from China approximates to 30%, so the increased demands will be stable. Furthermore, the API price is difficult to be rebounded at present due to the production capacities expansion for some exported APIs, such as penicillin GK, paracetamol, 7-ACA and vitamin C, and this will result in the export enterprise of API reducing the API price to maintain the share of the market.\
Meanwhile, the increase of global pharmaceuticals trade is expected. The increased rate of 31.16% for exported pharmaceuticals in the first half of 2010 exceeds the market expectation, it shows that the pharmaceuticals with good quality and low price manufactured in China still have strong market competitiveness and is of irreplaceable position. Therefore, it is estimated that the increased rate of exported pharmaceuticals in the second half of 2010 will be reduced. However, we still keep a cautiously optimistic attitude and anticipate that the increased rate of exported pharmaceuticals in 2010 can reach to 20%.
